Regulação emocional e simulação de cenários como estratégia para investidores do mercado de ações

Néia de Bortoli; Claudio Antonio Rojo

doi:10.5585/2025.28135

Authors

Néia de Bortoli Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná – Unioeste, Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7989-3064
Claudio Antonio Rojo Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná – Unioeste, Cascavel, Paraná, Brasil https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4484-9033

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/2025.28135

Keywords:

tomada de decisão, regulação emocional, heurísticas e vieses cognitivos, simulação de cenários, investidores pessoa física

Abstract

Objective of the study: To propose an emotional regulation script to support individual investors in the decision-making process in the stock market.

Methodology/Approach: Exploratory-descriptive study with a qualitative approach. Data collection was carried out using the snowball sampling with non-probabilistic convenience sampling and the application of an electronic questionnaire to investors holding stocks in their portfolios.

Originality/Relevance: Decision-making in the stock market is influenced by emotional and cognitive factors, such as heuristics and biases, affecting both novice and experienced investors. Emotional regulation can reduce impulsive decisions, making the decision-making process more conscious and strategic. The proposed Emotional Regulation Script integrates different behavioral dimensions to mitigate these impacts on investment decisions.

Main results: The identification of emotions, the use of emotional regulation techniques (Gross, 2008), the recognition of heuristics and cognitive biases (Kahneman, 2012), and scenario simulation (Rojo, 2006) are highlighted as central elements in promoting more balanced decisions aligned with the investor’s profile.

Theoretical/methodological contributions: The research contributes by integrating principles of cognitive psychology and behavioral economics into a practical application for individual investors, offering a structured and applicable script to better manage the emotional and cognitive factors that affect rationality.

Practical/managerial implications: The study reinforces the need for strategies to minimize risks and maximize gains, providing greater clarity in the decision-making process and supporting investors in making conscious and structured decisions.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Néia de Bortoli, Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná – Unioeste, Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil

Professional Master's in Business Administration from the State University of Western Paraná (UNIOESTE) (2022). Specialization in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy from Candido Mendes University (2020), Specialization in People Management from FGV (2011), Specialization in HR from Cesumar (2003), and Degree in Psychology from the State University of Maringá (2002). Professional journey developed in two companies: Sicredi (7 years): last position as People Management Manager, and TV Globo (6 years): last position as Executive Supervisor of Human Capital. A total of 13 years working in various HR competencies, including Change Management, Engagement Surveys, Compensation and Benefits, Recruitment and Selection, Training and Development. Additionally, leading projects and teams of professionals from various areas and roles. In 2019, after a career transition, the professional journey was redirected to clinical psychology work as a psychotherapist and to training and development for team members and leadership in companies across various sectors.

Claudio Antonio Rojo, Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná – Unioeste, Cascavel, Paraná, Brasil

Post-Doctorate (2012) from the University of São Paulo - FEA / USP. Doctorate (2005) in Production Engineering from the Federal University of Santa Catarina - UFSC. Master's degree (2001) from UFSC. MBA from the State University of Maringá - UEM. Bachelor's degree (1990) in Business Administration from the State University of Western Paraná - UNIOESTE. He is an Associate Professor at UNIOESTE, where he teaches Strategic Planning at the undergraduate level and Strategic and Competitive Scenarios in the Professional Master's in Business Administration and the Master's in Accounting. Starting his career as a sales representative and sales supervisor, he quickly sought to deepen his knowledge in general business management. He has experience in both public and private administration. He served as the Administrative-Financial Director in the public sector, professor, coordinator, and director at private higher education institutions. Consultant and Speaker in Business Administration on the following topics: strategic planning, competitiveness, scenarios, personal finance, and entrepreneurship. Professor in the MBA programs in Strategic Management, Business Intelligence, and Accounting, Financial, and Auditing Management at UNIOESTE, Cascavel Campus - Paraná. In March 2010, he co-published with fellow researchers the books: - Management of Intangible Assets - from measurement to competitiveness through scenarios, published by Atlas, and Personal Finance: the gold of knowledge of all times (kindle edition AMAZON.COM) in Portuguese, English, Italian, and Mandarin. In 2014, he published the book Investment in Small-Cap Stocks - Brazilian Market Scenarios in print and kindle e-book versions. In 2015, he contributed to the e-book: Education and Environmental Management: Sustainability in Competitive Environments, in partnership with fellow professors. He was invited to contribute to the FIA faculty book, "Business Management Manual: Theory and Practice," published by Manole, São Paulo, 2021. Mensan MB3441. Intertel Member.

References

Aaker, D. A., Kumar, V., & Day, G. S. (2004). Marketing Research. Translator: Reynaldo Cavalheiro Marcondes.

Ackoff, R. L., & Sasieni, M. W. (1971). Operational Research. Rio de Janeiro: LTC.

Andrade, E. L. D. (1989). Introduction to Operational Research: Methods and Techniques for Decision Analysis. Rio de Janeiro: LTC.

Ariely, D., & Kreisler, J. (2019). The Psychology of Money: Discover How Emotions Influence Our Financial Choices and Learn to Make Smarter Decisions. Sextante.

Brazilian Financial and Capital Markets Association (ANBIMA) (2021). Suitability: understand why considering your investor profile is important. Retrieved from: https://www.anbima.com.br

Baldin, N., & Munhoz, E. M. B. (2012). Community environmental education: an experience with the snowball research technique. REMEA - Revista Eletrônica do Mestrado em Educação Ambiental, 27.

Bazerman, M. H. (2004). Judgment in Managerial Decision Making. 5th ed. (Portuguese translation).

Brazil, Stock Exchange, Over the Counter (2019). Brazilian Investor Ecosystem. Available at: https://www.b3.com.br

Brazil, Stock Exchange, Over the Counter (2020). An Analysis of the Evolution of Individual Investors at B3. Available at: https://www.b3.com.br

Brazil, Stock Exchange, Over the Counter. (2022). Retail Investor Profile – Equities. https://www.b3.com.br

Brazil, Stock Exchange, Over the Counter. (2024). Retail Investor Profile – Equities. https://www.b3.com.br

Baker, H. K., & Nofsinger, J. R. (2002). Psychological biases of investors. Financial Services Review, 11(2), 97–116.

Bault, N., Coricelli, G., & Rustichini, A. (2008). Interdependent utilities: How social ranking affects choice behavior. PLoS ONE, 3(10), e3477. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0003477

Bulhões, R., & Ghiggi, D. (2021). Consumer choices from a behavioral perspective. In: Behavioral Science Lab Seminars. São Paulo: Anais do Behavioral Science Lab.

Securities and Exchange Commission of Brazil (2021). CVM Resolution No. 30, May 11, 2021. https://conteudo.cvm.gov.br/export/sites/cvm/legislacao/resolucoes/anexos/001/resol030.pdf

Cosenza, R. M. N. (2011). Education: how the brain learns. Porto Alegre: Artmed.

Damasio, A. (2012). Descartes' Error: Emotion, Reason, and the Human Brain. Brazilian Publishing house

de Brito, O. S. (2019). Financial Market. Saraiva Educação SA.

Dorow, A., Júnior, J. S. M., Patrícia, N., Reina, D., & Reina, D. R. M. (2010). Anchoring heuristic and risk-based decision-making in real estate investments. Contabilidade Gestão e Governança, 13(3).

Fonseca, V. D. (2016). The importance of emotions in learning: a neuropsychopedagogical approach. Revista Psicopedagogia, 33(102), 365–384.

Fuller, R. J. (1998). Behavioral finance and the sources of alpha. Journal of Pension Plan Investing, 2(3), 291–293.

Fenton‐O’Creevy, M., Soane, E., Nicholson, N., & Willman, P. (2011). Thinking, feeling and deciding: The influence of emotions on the decision making and performance of traders. Journal of Organizational Behavior, 32(8), 1044–1061. https://doi.org/10.1002/job.720

Gil, A. C. (2008). Methods and Techniques of Social Research. 6th ed. Editora Atlas.

Gross, J. J. (2008). Emotion regulation. Handbook of Emotions, 3(3), 497–513.

Housel, M. (2021). The Psychology of Money: Timeless Lessons on Wealth, Greed, and Happiness. Harlequin.

Kahneman, D., Slovic, P., & Tversky, A. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Cambridge University Press. http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0036-8075%2819740927%293%3A185%3A4157%3C1124%3AJUUHAB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-M

Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, Fast and Slow. Objetiva.

Kahneman, D., & Riepe, M. W. (1998). Aspects of investor psychology. Journal of Portfolio Management, 24(4), 52. https://doi.org/10.3905/jpm.1998.409643

Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (2017). Smart Choices: A Practical Guide to Making Better Decisions. Alta Books.

Hastie, R. (2001). Problems for judgment and decision making. Annual Review of Psychology, 52(1), 653–683.

Katona, G. (1975). Psychological Economics. New York: Elsevier.

Kuhnen, C. M., & Knutson, B. (2011). The influence of affect on beliefs, preferences, and financial decisions. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 46(3), 605–626. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022109011000123

Kumar, S., & Chaurasia, A. (2024). The relationship between emotional biases and investment decisions: A meta-analysis. IIMT Journal of Management, 1(2), 171–185. https://doi.org/10.1108/IIMTJM-03-2024-0034

Leahy, R. L., Tirch, D., & Napolitano, L. A. (2013). Emotional Regulation in Psychotherapy: A Practitioner’s Guide. Artmed Editora.

Lent, R. (2010). One Hundred Billion Neurons: Fundamental Concepts in Neuroscience. 2nd ed. Editora Atheneu.

Linehan, M. M. (2018). DBT Skills Training Manual: Behavioral Therapy Manual for the Therapist. Artmed Editora.

Malhotra, N. K. (2001). Marketing Research: An Applied Orientation. Bookman Editora.

Mattar, F. N. (2001). Marketing Research: Methodology and Planning (3rd ed.). São Paulo: Atlas.

Mayer, J. D., & Salovey, P. (1997). Emotional Development and Emotional Intelligence. New York: Basic Books.

Nofsinger, J. R. (2006). The Psychology of Investing: How to Profit from Behavioral Finance. São Paulo: Fundamento.

Pereira, W. R., Ribeiro, M. R. R., Depes, V. B. S., & Santos, N. C. (2013). Emotional competencies in the process of teaching and learning in nursing, from the perspective of neurosciences. Revista Latino-Americana de Enfermagem, 21, 663–669. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0104-11692013000300003

Pidd, M. (1998). Business Modeling: Tools for Decision Making. Porto Alegre: Bookman.

Investor Portal (2021). https://www.investidor.gov.br/menu/Menu_Investidor/funcionamento_mercado/Suitability.html

Plutchik, R. (1980). A general psychoevolutionary theory of emotion. In Theories of Emotion (pp. 3–33). Academic Press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-558701-3.50007-7

Puga, R. (2010). Investor Training. “Expo Money” Collection. Rio de Janeiro.

Richardson, R. J. (2010). Guide to a Research Project. In: Social Research: Methods and Techniques, 3, 55–67.

Robbins, S. P. (1998). Organizational Behavior: Concepts, Controversies, Applications. 8th ed.

Rojo, C. A. (2005). Model for Scenario Simulation: An Application in a Private Higher Education Institution.

Rojo, C. A. (2010). Scenario Simulation and Business Strategy. CAP Accounting and Management-B4, 1(1), 37–44.

Rojo, C. A. (2019). Investment in Small Cap Stocks: Brazilian Market Scenarios. Cascavel, PR: Assoeste.

Rojo, C. A., Hoss, O., Sousa, A. F. D., & Lezana, Á. G. R. (2012). Personal Finance: The Gold of All Times’ Knowledge.

Rossoni, L. (2006). Soft Modeling and Simulation in Strategy. Universidade Federal do Paraná–UFPR. https://doi.org/10.14488/1676-1901.v6i2.291

Salovey, P., & Mayer, J. D. (1990). Emotional Intelligence. Imagination, Cognition and Personality, 9(3), 185–211. https://psycnet.apa.org/doi/10.2190/DUGG-P24E-52WK-6CDG

Sbicca, A. (2014). Heuristics in the Study of Economic Decisions: Contributions from Herbert Simon, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. Estudos Econômicos (São Paulo), 44, 579–603. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0101-41612014000300006

Serra, R. G., Galeno, M. M., Contani, E. A. R., Torralvo, C. F., & Marinho, B. L. (2010). Behavioral biases in investment decisions: an empirical study. Revista de Finanças Aplicadas, 1, 1–23.

Silva, R. F. M. D., Lagioia, U. C. T., Maciel, C. V., & Rodrigues, R. N. (2009). Behavioral Finance: a comparative study using prospect theory with undergraduate students of accounting. Revista Brasileira de Gestão de Negócios, 11, 383–403. https://doi.org/10.7819/rbgn.v11i33.432

Simon, H. A. (1955). A Behavioral Model of Rational Choice. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 69(1), 99–118. https://doi.org/10.2307/1884852

Simon, H. A. (1996). Models of My Life. MIT Press.

Sousa, A. F. D., & Rojo, C. A. (2010). Investment Analysis through Scenario Simulation Based on Qualitative Critical Variables Compiled with Fuzzy Logic. Revista CAP Accounting and Management, 4(4), 118–126.

Thaler, R. H. (1999). Mental Accounting Matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183–206. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0771(199909)12:3<183::AID-BDM318>3.0.CO;2-F

Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124–1131. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.185.4157.1124

Vieito, J. P., da Rocha, A. F., & Rocha, F. T. (2015). Brain Activity of the Investor's Stock Market Financial Decision. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 16(3), 220–230. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15427560.2015.1064931

Vinuto, J. (2014). Snowball sampling in qualitative research: an open debate. Temáticas, 22(44), 203–220.