Managing risk of delay in logistics deliveries using expected value method

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/exactaep.2021.8636

Keywords:

Recycling, Wind blades, Wind power, Life cycle.

Abstract

This paper develops a decision-making assistant tool for managing the risk of delay in commercial outbound deliveries based on expected value (EV) and Statistical Learning (EL). This tool allows decision takers to prioritize deliveries based both on their quantities and probability of delaying. In this model prioritizing deliveries based on their EV results in minimizing impact on On-Time Delivery (OTD) KPI. The probabilities used on this model stem from a logistic regression model. The coefficients were used to evaluate which variables most impact on the chance of delaying. A simulation was executed on the historical data of multinational electronics company to test the applicability of this model. The quality of the predictions was tested using standard methodology for testing statistical learning models of the literature. Lastly the prioritization based on VE was tested confronting the predicted delay against real delay in each of five risk groups. The results show that the calculated probabilities were a reliable input and that the EV prioritization model allowed to find the high-risk group.

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Author Biographies

Gustavo de Abreu Rodrigues, Universidade de São Paulo – USP

Bacharelado em Engenharia Física pela UFSCAR e pós graduado em Gestão de Projetos pela Vanzolini. Profissinal  com experiência em consultoria de supply chain e aplicação de B.I na área de logística. Atualmente trabalha em uma multinacional de produtos eletronicos e é aluno de mestrado do Grupo de Operações Logísticas (GOL) na USP

José Geraldo Vidal Vieira, Escola Politécnica/Universidade de São Paulo – Poli/USP

Professor associado de Gerenciamento de Operações Logísticas no departamento de Engenharia de Produção da UFSCAR campus de Sorocaba. Possui Bacharelado em Ciência da Computação, MSC em Engenharia de Produção pela PUC do Rio de Janeiro e doutorado em Engenharia de Produção pela Escola Politécnica da USP

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Published

2021-06-10

How to Cite

Rodrigues, G. de A., & Vieira, J. G. V. (2021). Managing risk of delay in logistics deliveries using expected value method. Exacta, 19(2), 324–350. https://doi.org/10.5585/exactaep.2021.8636

Issue

Vol. 19 No. 2 (2021): (abr./jun.)

Section

Papers

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