Demand forecast as support for the lean philosophy
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5585/exactaep.v18n1.8935Keywords:
Management, Industry, Lean Manufacturing.Abstract
Lean thinking can be translated as a set of principles, tools and techniques that, combined, aim for improvement in terms of quality, cost, customer satisfaction and others. Several tools and methods can assist organizations in the quest for a "lean" manufacturing environment, for example quality tools, information technology and mathematical-statistical methods such as demand forecasting. Thus, the present article, which behaves as a case study, aimed to analyze the application of the Holt-Winters Model for Seasonal Effects in a fruit pulp company located in Pernambuco and compare the gains obtained from the perspective of the lean philosophy. Among other gains were observed lower inventory levels, reduced waiting time and even lower costs. That is, it is proven that, when applied to the demand forecasting technique, the company's management can better plan its acquisitions, determine investments in assets, hiring labor, increase production capacity and estimate its profit.
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