PROSPECCIÓN DE ESCENARIOS: UN ABORDAJE PLURAL PARA EL FUTURO DE BRASIL EN 2020<br>http://dx.doi.org/10.5585/riae.v9i1.1645

Authors

  • James Terence Coulter Wright FEA USP
  • Antonio Thiago Benedete Silva FEA USP
  • Renata Giovinazzo Spers Fundação Instituto de Administração

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/ijsm.v9i1.1645

Keywords:

Future studies, Scenarios, Economic development, Brazil.

Abstract

This study aimed to develop possible scenarios for Brazil in 2020 and identify the most likely scenario using the Delphi method, in which participated 169 specialists (100 in Round 1 and 69 in Round 2). The results indicate that Brazil might evolve into an Integrated Development Scenario - combining international competitive integration with better social inclusion. However, according to the experts consulted, Brazil runs a considerable risk of falling in an alternative scenario, the Growth with Low Competitiveness Scenario. From the strategy point of view, this work contribution is to identify the most likely scenario and indicate other possible scenarios, which, when taken together, enable better strategic decisions by discovering and modeling uncertainties before substantial and irreversible commitments are made, and increase the speed of response to unexpected events by anticipating possible futures.

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Author Biographies

James Terence Coulter Wright, FEA USP

Doutor em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da USP, Mestre em Engineering Management pela Vanderbilt University – EUA, e Engenheiro Civil pela Universidade Mackenzie. Atualmente, é professor do Departamento de Administração da FEA USP e coordenador do Profuturo FIA. Pesquisador nas áreas de Previsão Tecnológica, Estratégia, e Processos de Decisão em Grupo Apoiada pelo Computador.

Antonio Thiago Benedete Silva, FEA USP

Mestre em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da USP e administrador pela Universidade Federal de Lavras. Atualmente, é professor do curso de graduação em Administração da Fundação Escola de Comércio Álvares Penteado e pesquisador do Profuturo FIA. Linhas de pesquisa: Estudos do Futuro, Estratégia, e Mudança e Inovação nas Organizações.

Renata Giovinazzo Spers, Fundação Instituto de Administração

Doutora em Administração pela Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da USP, economista e Mestre em Administração pela FEA –USP. Atualmente, é Vice-coordenadora do International MBA Full Time da FIA e pesquisadora do Profuturo nas seguintes linhas: Estratégia Internacional e Mercados Emergentes, Estratégia para Mercado de Bens Populares, Metodologias de Prospecção, Cenários e Planejamento Estratégico.

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Published

27.07.2010

How to Cite

Wright, J. T. C., Silva, A. T. B., & Spers, R. G. (2010). PROSPECCIÓN DE ESCENARIOS: UN ABORDAJE PLURAL PARA EL FUTURO DE BRASIL EN 2020<br>http://dx.doi.org/10.5585/riae.v9i1.1645. Revista Ibero-Americana De Estratégia, 9(1), 56–76. https://doi.org/10.5585/ijsm.v9i1.1645

Issue

Vol. 9 No. 1 (2010): RIAE v9n1

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2010 Iberoamerican Journal of Strategic Management

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