Projecting the future: strategies based on scenario planning for a metalworking company

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5585/2025.25762

Keywords:

scenario prospecting, strategic planning, future events, metallurgical industry

Abstract

Objective of the study: This article aims to construct and analyze prospective scenarios for a metallurgical industry located in Franca, São Paulo, covering the period from 2023 to 2028.

Methodology/approach: The research adopts a qualitative, bibliographical, and exploratory methodology. The main stages for constructing the scenarios use the Blanning and Reinig Method to define possible future scenarios, the Cross-Impact Matrix, and the Delphi Method, which assist in identifying and analyzing the probabilities of future events.

Originality/Relevance: Strategic planning is essential for business success, and the prospecting of future scenarios stands out as a tool that provides strategic vision and security for decision-making. This article applies these methodologies to a small company, demonstrating effective strategies to address threats and seize opportunities. Thus, the study contributes to the economic development of the analyzed company and can serve as a model for other businesses and academic studies.

Main results: The research presents three future scenarios — optimistic, pessimistic, and realistic — which will serve as the foundation for the strategic planning of the studied industry.

Theoretical/methodological and social contributions: This work introduces the use of the scenario prospecting tool in different business contexts, promoting financial and social stability. Consequently, it enhances employee security through more efficient strategic planning.

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Author Biographies

Flávio Jorge Bettarello, Centro Universitário de Franca

Master in regional development. Graduated in mechanical engineering from mackenzie presbyterian university (2007). has experience in mechanical engineering with an emphasis on energy utilization. holds an mba in business management from the municipal university center of franca (2013). serves as technical and planning director at betta hidroturbinas industry, working in production planning and control, sales and financial planning, product development, and technical training and capacity building for technical representatives. earned a master’s degree in regional development from the municipal university center of franca (2024).

Débora Nogueira Turazza, Centro Universitário de Franca

Master in regional development. Graduated in law from the faculty of law of franca (2011), graduated in geography from the claretian university center (2022) and in pedagogy from the unique university center (2024). master in regional development from the municipal university center of franca (uni-facef). technician in occupational safety and environment from the paula souza state center for technological education. (2019). self-employed lawyer and teacher of geography in elementary school and of technical subjects in high school integrated with technical education and in technical education at the paula souza state center for technological education

Abelardo de Paula Oliveira, Centro Universitário de Franca

Master’s degree in regional development from uni-facef (2024). he completed a specialization program in pedagogical training for teachers at fatec (2012), an mba in controllership and finance, auditing, and tax planning at uni-facef (2011), and a specialization in corporate law, labor and contractual strategies at universidade de franca (2009). he earned a bachelor’s degree in accounting from universidade de franca (2004) and a teaching license in visual arts (2024). currently, he serves as a project coordinator at the regional supervision of the paula souza state center for technological education and as a pedagogical coordinator at famef. he has extensive experience in tax planning, business costs, marketing strategies, corporate accounting, business planning, and finance.

Eduardo Jorge Bettarello, Centro Universitário de Franca

Master's degree in regional development. Holds a bachelor's degree in production engineering from the university of franca (2003) and a postgraduate degree in business management from unifacef (2006). experienced in the field of production engineering, with a focus on production systems, working primarily on the following topics: business administration, small hydropower plants (shp), hydropower generation plants (hgp), pressure-reducing turbines, energy generation, pressure control and water loss management in basic sanitation, iron casting, and research and development of new products.

Alfredo José Machado Neto, Centro Universitário de Franca

Doctor of administration. Graduated in economic sciences (1972) and in business administration (1973) from uni-facef - municipal university center of franca/sp, holds a master's degree in business management from the same institution (2000) and a doctorate in administration from fea/ usp (2006). worked at banespa – (1970/1974) and at the federal revenue secretariat, as a tax auditor (1979/1999). since 1974 he has been a professor at uni-facef, where he served five terms as rector, currently holding the position of pro-rector of administration. he is a member of the deliberative council of acif - franca's commerce and industry association and the Franca pro-child institute.

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Published

03.02.2025

How to Cite

Bettarello, F. J., Turazza, D. N., Oliveira, A. de P., Bettarello, E. J., & Machado Neto, A. J. (2025). Projecting the future: strategies based on scenario planning for a metalworking company. Revista Ibero-Americana De Estratégia, 24(1), e25762. https://doi.org/10.5585/2025.25762

Issue

Vol. 24 No. 1 (2025): Jan./Apr.

Section

Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2025 Flávio Jorge Bettarello, Débora Nogueira Turazza, Abelardo de Paula Oliveira, Eduardo Jorge Bettarello, Alfredo José Machado Neto

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

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