A intenção de prevenção e de gastos futuros durante a COVID-19: um estudo considerando a tomada de decisões sob risco
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5585/remark.v19i4.18516Palabras clave:
Consumo, Covid-19, Intenção, Risco, Modelagem de Equações Estruturais.Resumen
Objetivo: O objetivo principal do estudo foi analisar os aspectos que influenciam na intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19, o objetivo secundário foi analisar a influência da intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19 na intenção de gastos futuros.
Método: Para testar o modelo proposto, foi feito um levantamento com 402 pessoas. O modelo foi analisado por meio de Modelagem de Equações Estruturais baseada em variâncias (PLS-SEM).
Originalidade/Relevância: Um modelo foi proposto, testado e validado para analisar a intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19.
Resultados: Os resultados indicam que 49,4% da variância da intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19 é explicada pelo modelo proposto, sendo gravidade percebida e norma subjetiva antecessores de crença de autoeficácia (R2=0,326), que por sua vez é antecessor da intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19. Ademais, observou-se uma leve influência da gravidade percebida na intenção de gastos futuros (R2=0,008; β = 0,104; p < 0,01).
Contribuições teóricas: As principais contribuições deste estudo foram: identificar um modelo com relevante capacidade explicativa da intenção de se prevenir da Covid-19; demonstrar novas relações entre construtos ainda não testados na literatura, especificamente a influência da norma subjetiva na crença de autoeficácia e desta na intenção de gastos futuros; e demonstrar que alguns aspectos sociodemográficos influenciam a gravidade percebida, a crença de autoeficácia e a intenção de se prevenir de Covid-19.
Descargas
Citas
Agência Brasil. (2020). Segunda onda da Covid-19 pode levar PIB do Brasil a cair 9,1%. Recovered from https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/economia/noticia/2020-06/segunda-onda-da-Covid-19-pode-levar-pib-do-brasil-cair-91.
Ajzen, I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational behavior and human decision processes, 50(2), 179-211.
Aktipis, C. A., & Kurzban, R. (2004). Is Homo economicus extinct? Vernon Smith, Daniel Kahneman and the evolutionary perspective. In R. Koppl (Ed.), Advances in Austrian economics, 7, 135-153.
Allais, M. (1953). Le comportement de l’homme rationnel devant le risque: Critique des postulats et axiomes de l’école Américaine [Rational human behavior regarding risk: A critique of axioms of the American school]. Econometrica, 21, 503-546.
Babbie, E. (2003). Métodos de pesquisas de survey. Belo Horizonte: Editora UFMG.
Bandura, A. (2009). Cultivate self-efficacy for personal and organizational effectiveness. In E. A. Locke (Ed.), Handbook of principles of organization behavior (2a ed., pp. 179-200). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
Bandura, A. (1997). Self-Efficacy: The Exercise of Control. New York: Freeman.
Bandura, A. (1999). Social cognitive theory of personality. In L. Pervin & O. John (eds.), Handbook of Personality (2a ed., pp. 154-196). New York: Guilford.
Bandura, A. (2001). Social cognitive theory: an agentic perspective. Annual Review of Psychology, 52, 1-26.
Barrett, H. C., & Fiddick, L. (1999). Evolution and risky decisions. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 4, 251-252.
Berg, N., & Gigerenzer, G. (2010). As-if behavioral economics: Neoclassical economics in disguise? History of Economic Ideas, 18, 133-166.
Boletim Focus. (2020). Focus Relatório de Mercado. Recovered from https://www.bcb.gov.br/publicacoes/focus/19062020.
Bontempo, R., Bottom, W., & Weber, E. (1997). Cross-cultural differences in risk perception: A model based approach. Risk Analysis, 17, 479-488.
Brandstätter, E., Gigerenzer, G., & Hertwig, R. (2006). The priority heuristic: Making choices without trade-offs. Psychological Review, 113, 409-432.
Brewer, N., Chapman, G. B., Gibbons, F. X., Gerrard, M., Mccaul, K. D., & Weinstein, N. D. (2007). Meta-Analysis of the Relationship Between Risk Perception and Health Behavior: The Example of Vaccination. Health Psychology, 26(2), 136-145.
Burns, A., Mensbrugghe D., & Timmer H. (2006). Evaluating the Economic Consequences of Avian Influenza, in Global Development Finance. Washington: World Bank.
Chauhan, V., & Shah, H. (2020). An Empirical Analysis into Sentiments, Media Consumption Habits, and Consumer Behaviour during the Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak. Purakala UGC Care Journal, 31(20).
Chiou, J. (1998). The effects of attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control on consumers’ purchase intentions: the moderating effects of product knowledge and attention to social comparison information. Proceedings of the National Science Council, 9(2). Republic of China. 298-308.
Cho, H., & Lee, J. S. (2015). The influence of self-efficacy, subjective norms, and risk perception on behavioral intentions related to the H1N1 flu pandemic: A comparison between Korea and the US. Asian Journal of Social Psychology, 18(4), 1-32.
Chronopoulos, D. K., Lukas, M., & Wilson, J. O. (2020). Consumer Spending Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic: An Assessment of Great Britain. Available at SSRN 3586723.
Cohen, J. (1992). A power primer. Psychological bulletin, 112(1), 155-159.
Deloitte. (2020). Covid-19 e os impactos nos setores: Um olhar atento às projeções futuras e à evolução dos negócios durante a pandemia. Recovered from https://www2.deloitte.com/br/pt/pages/about-deloitte/articles/combate-covid-setores.html.
Ellsburg, D. (1961). Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 75, 643-669.
Floyd, D. L., Prentice‐Dunn, S., & Rogers, R. W. (2000). A meta‐analysis of research on protection motivation theory. Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 30(2), 407-429.
Fiocruz. (2020). Observatório COVID-19. Recovered from https://portal.fiocruz.br/impactos-sociais-economicos-culturais-e-politicos-da-pandemia.
Gibbons, F. X., Helweg-Larsen, M., & Gerrard, M. (1995). Prevalence estimates and adolescent risk behavior: Cross-cultural differences in social influence. Journal of Applied Psychology, 80, 107-121.
Gigerenzer, G., & Gaissmaier, W. (2011). Heuristic decision-making. Annual Review of Psychology, 62, 451-482.
Gigerenzer, G., Hertwig, R., & Pachur, T. (2011). Heuristics: The foundations of adaptive behavior. New York, NY: Oxford University Press.
Gigerenzer, G., & Todd, P. M. (1999). Simple heuristics that make us smart. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Gorbalenya, A., Baker, S., Baric, R., Groot, R., Drosten, C., Gulyaeva, A., & Penzar, D. (2020). Severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus: The species and its viruses–a statement of the Coronavirus Study Group. Recuperado de https://digital.csic.es/bitstream/10261/212994/1/Severe%20acute_Gorbalenya.pdf.
Hair Jr., J. F., Gabriel, M. L. D. S., Silva, D., & Braga Jr., S. S. B. (2019). Development and validation of attitudes measurement scales: fundamental and practical aspects. RAUSP Management Journal, 54(4), 490-507.
Hair Jr, J. F., Hult, G. T. M., Ringle, C. M., & Sarstedt, M. (2017). A primer on partial least squares structural modeling (PLS-SEM) (2a ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: SAGE Publications.
Hair Jr.; J. F., Black, W. C., Babin, B. J., Anderson, R. E., & Tatham, Ronald L. (2009). Análise Multivariada de Dados (6a ed.) Porto Alegre: Bookman.
Hall, M. C., Prayag, G., Fieger, P., & Dyason, D. (2020). Beyond panic buying: consumption displacement and COVID-19. Journal of Service Management, DOI 10.1108/JOSM-05-2020-0151.
IstoÉ Dinheiro. (2020). COVID-19 e as mudanças forçadas nos hábitos de consumo. Recovered from https://www.istoedinheiro.com.br/Covid-19-e-as-mudancas-forcadas-nos-habitos-de-consumo/.
Johnson, E. J., Schulte-Mecklenbeck, M., & Willemsen, M. C. (2008). Process models deserve process data: Comment on Brandstätter, Gigerenzer, and Hertwig. Psychological Review, 115, 263-272.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. Econometrica, 47, 313-327.
Katsikopoulos, K. V., & Gigerenzer, G. (2008). One-reason decision-making: Modeling violations of expected utility theory. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 37, 35-56.
Keogh-Brown, M. R., & Smith, R. D. (2008). The Economic Impact of SARS: How Does the Reality Match the Predictions? Health Policy, 88(1), 110-120
Kline, R. B. (2019). Becoming a behavioral science researcher: a guide to producing research that matters. (2nd ed.). New York, NY: The Guilford Press.
Koonin, L. M. (2020). Novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak: Now is the time to refresh pandemic plans. Journal of Business Continuity & Emergency Planning, 13(4) 1-15.
Kostova D., Cassell C. H., Redd J. T., Williams D. E., Singh T., Martel L. D., & Bunnell R. E. (2019). Long-distance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment, Health Economics, 28, 1248-1261.
Lee, C., & Green, R. T. (1991). Crosscultural examination of the Fishbein behavioral intentions model. Journal of International Business Studies, 22, 289-305.
Martin, A., Markhvida, M., Hallegatte, S., & Walsh, B. (2020). Socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 on household consumption and poverty. Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 4(3), 453-479.
Mckinsey. (2020). COVID-19: Implications for business. Recovered from https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/risk/our-insights/Covid-19-implications-for-business#.
Ministério da Saúde. (2020a). Brasil confirma primeiro caso da doença. Recovered from https://www.saude.gov.br/noticias/agencia-saude/46435-brasil-confirma-primeiro-caso-de-novo-coronavirus.
Ministério da Saúde. (2020b). Painel Coronavírus. Recovered from https://covid.saude.gov.br/.
Mishra, S. (2014). Decision-making under risk: Integrating perspectives from biology, economics, and psychology. Personality and Social Psychology Review, 18, 280-307.
Nielsen. (2020). Life Beyond COVID-19: What manufacturers and retailers must now prepare for. Recovered from https://www.nielsen.com/ch/en/insights/article/2020/life-beyond-Covid-19/.
Nunnally, J., & Bernstein, I. (1994). The Assessment of Reliability. Psychometric Theory, 3, 248-292.
OMS – Organização Mundial da Saúde. (2020). WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. Recovered from <https://covid19.who.int/.
Pedersen, C. L., & Ritter, T. (2020). Preparing your business for a postpandemic world. Harvard Busisnes Review. Recovered from:https://hbr.org/2020/04/preparing-your-business-for-a-post-pandemic-world.
Pereira, V., & Dias, P. C. (2018). Atitudes e Consumo de Cannabis em Estudantes do Ensino Geral e Vocacional. Psicologia, Saúde & Doenças, 19(3), 535-549.
Putrevu, S., & Lord, K. R. (1994). Comparative and Noncomparative Advertising: Attitudinal Effects under Cognitive and Affective Involvement Conditions. Journal of Advertising, 23(2), 77-91.
Rassy, D., & Smith, R. (2013). The Economic Impact of H1N1 on Mexico's Tourist and Pork Sectors. Health Economics, 22, 824-834.
Regalado-Pezúa, O., Guerrero, C., Ruiz, J., & Morales, J. (2016). Influence of non-economic factors in the use of personal care products: the case of male Peruvian consumer. Universidad & Empresa, 18(31), 121-138.
Relihan, L., Ward, M., Wheat, C. W., & Farrell, D. (2020). The early impact of COVID-19 on local commerce: changes in spend across neighborhoods and online. Covid Economics.
Ringle, C., Silva, D., & Bido, D. S. (2014). Modelagem de equações estruturais com utilização do Smartpls. Revista Brasileira de Marketing, 13(2), 54-71.
Rode, C., & Wang, X. T. (2000). Risk-sensitive decision-making examined within an evolutionary framework. American Behavioral Scientist, 43, 926-939.
Salanova, M., Grau, R., & Martínez, I. (2006). Job Demands and coping behaviours: the moderating role of professional self-efficacy. Psychology in Spain, 10, 1-7.
Sharma, P., Leung, T. Y., Kingshott, R. P., Davcik, N. S., & Cardinali, S. (2020). Managing uncertainty during a global pandemic: An international business perspective. Journal of Business Research, 116, 188-192.
Social Miner. (2020). Tendências de consumo num mundo pós-Covid-19. Recovered from http://blog.socialminer.com/people-marketing/tendencias-de-consumo-num-mundo-pos-Covid-19
Starmer, C. (2000). Developments in non-expected utility theory: The hunt for a descriptive theory of choice under risk. Journal of Economic Literature, 38, 332-382.
Todd, P. M. (2000). The ecological rationality of mechanisms evolved to make up minds. American Behavioral Scientist, 43, 940-956.
Todd, P. M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2012). Ecological rationality: Intelligence in the world. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press.
Todd, P. M., & Gigerenzer, G. (2000). Précis of Simple heuristics that make us smart. Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 23, 727-780.
Venkatesan, R., Kumar, V., & Ravishanker, N. (2007). Multichannel shopping: causes and consequences. Journal of Marketing, 71(2), 114-132.
Wang, Y., Hong, A., Li, X., & Gao, J. (2020). Marketing innovations during a global crisis: A study of China firms’ response to COVID-19. Journal of Business Research, 116, 214-220.
Winterhalder, B., Lu, F., & Tucker, B. (1999). Risk-sensitive adaptive tactics: Models and evidence from subsistence studies in biology and anthropology. Journal of Archaeological Research, 7, 301-347.
Wu, G., Zhang, J., & Gonzalez, R. (2004). Decision under risk. In D. Koehler; N. Harvey (Eds.), Blackwell handbook of judgment and decision making (pp. 399-423). Oxford, UK: Blackwell.
Descargas
Publicado
Cómo citar
Número
Sección
Licencia
Derechos de autor 2020 Revista Brasileira de Marketing
Esta obra está bajo una licencia internacional Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0.